The MAPS country processes generated a robust evidence base to inform long term development and mitigation policy in their countries. This information included emissions reference cases, emission reduction opportunities, potentials and costs and on the socioeconomic impacts of the mitigation actions and scenarios. The results are presented according to a set of different scenarios, including normative equity driven scenarios when available.
The country assessments revealed different findings, however across the countries common trends emerged.
In all countries growth in GDP and population were the major drivers of emissions in the scenarios, with energy and transport the sectors reflecting the largest increases. The existing mitigation policy in the countries are responsible for substantial emissions reductions forecast however these are inadequate to offset the increases driven by GDP and population growth. Consequently the emissions reductions achieved by 2030 ranged from 25-49% below the reference cases, which are incompatible with 2°C trajectories.
Some of the most significant findings in the countries are those that relate to the interaction between mitigation and the economy. A number of scenarios demonstrate that mitigation scenarios outperform reference cases both in terms of growth and employment, with low carbon opportunities most apparent in the long term. The country results provided evidence for the synergies between mitigation and inclusive growth, and that requires further research to more deeply unpack the economy-wide implications of mitigation and the implicit uncertainty of long-term modelling.
Click on the map to explore the MAPS Country Results.