The aim of this paper is to aid in the understanding of the nature of development-first modelling, to determine shortcomings of the current modelling tools in addressing development issues and to suggest avenues of potential improvement to be explored. Download PDF
This paper explores the adaptation-mitigation nexus through examining a set of policies, strategies, and programs underway in six developing countries. Based on a set of definitions, it presents a systematic comparative analysis of the approaches adopted in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa and the state of mitigation and adaptation at the policy level in each […]
This report summarises the findings of the strategic internal project review. This report is not a comprehensive evaluation – it does not attempt to judge the programme against its own initial intent, or against the intent of the funder. Instead, it is accepted that the programme has changed in some ways from the initial intentions. […]
This paper aims to understand the implications of South Africa reducing emissions as part of a global agreement to limit temperature rise to below 2 degrees C and to examine the potential risks of stranded assets in the energy sector. Can South Africa meet carbon constraints without stranding assets? Given the structure of the energy sector […]
This paper gives a brief review of the field of MCDA and its use in evaluating different action components and the assembling of these into coherent strategies, the generation of broad policy directions to guide strategy formation, and in evaluating total action plans or strategies. Download PDF
The goal of the project was to derive baseline forecasts of carbon dioxide and other GHG emissions for South Africa, from the present day to 2050. This paper elaborates on the approach used, and reports on the results obtained. Download PDF
This paper focuses on the gaps between poverty reduction and climate mitigation, focusing specifically on the reasons why climate mitigation cannot be ignored or overlooked, even under conditions of extreme poverty. The author ends with recommendations for integrating mitigation actions into anti-poverty strategies. Download PDF
This report presents a description of the process developed by the Project for Planning in the Face of Climate Change in Peru (PlanCC), together with the main findings resulting from an analysis of the process achieved during Phase I. This analysis was performed together with other three studies on the processes of MAPS projects in Brazil, Chile […]
This paper documents the models used within MAPS processes in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. It describes the methodologies used to model the sector in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, under their respective MAPS processes. The country case studies can be of support to others when examining policy interventions for […]
This paper focuses on the analysis conducted to provide country level information on potential emissions under a business-as-usual or reference scenario, and under scenarios in which greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options are implemented. The focus of this paper is the waste sector, with complementary papers having been produced for other sectors. Download PDF
This paper provides a critical review of a first attempt to capture climate compatible socio-economic development metrics within a linked energy-economic modelling framework. The linked model refers to a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is partially linked to a technology rich energy model. Download PDF
Increasing Participation in the Production of Evidence for Climate Change Decision Making in Brazil: The IES-Brasil Project Experience
This report seeks to introduce and critically analyse the participatory scenario building project IES-Brasil independently facilitated and implemented by the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change (the FBMC), involving more than 100 experts from all sectors of the Brazilian economy. This analysis is done within the context of the rising importance of the climate issue in Brazil, and the […]
This technical brief presents a review of the debate in the literature and the application of discount rates in the MAPS context. The brief summarises the key considerations that should inform the choice of discount rate, possible approaches that could be adopted and a summary of discount rates applied in relevant contexts. Download PDF
Development-first modelling: achieving development and mitigation objectives through decarbonisation development pathways in SA
This work explored decarbonisation developmental pathways, building upon recent work which has theorised more fully the relationship between development and climate (Winkler et al. 2015), as well as recent work focused on linked energy-economic modelling in developing countries (Shukla 2013). The focus was on the technical feasibility of such decarbonisation development pathways, and not the political feasibility of implementation. […]
Building Institutional Capacities for Climate Change Policy Formation in Developing Countries: The Case of MAPS Chile
Practitioners and academics say there is an urgent need for documenting and analysing the processes of building climate change policies across the world, with an emphasis on integrating expert knowledge and broader social views in the process of generating evidence to support decision-making, in defining mitigation actions and adaptation measures, in implementation, and in evaluating potential impacts. This […]
A Compilation of Agricultural Models Assessing Sectoral Dynamics, GHG Emissions and Abatement Opportunities
This paper aims to provide an extensive review of agriculture modelling frameworks that explain the dynamics of the sector, estimate anthropogenic agriculture GHG emissions, or assess emission changes through mitigation options. Download PDF
Measuring the impact of mitigation measures on forestry competitiveness in Peru: A Global Competitiveness Index approach
This paper aims to evaluate the impact on competitiveness through a set of measures that the government of Peru is planning to implement for mitigating climate change in the forestry sector. The evaluation was carried out using a forestry ranking index, which we have named the Global Forestry Competitiveness Index.
This research quantifies the co-benefits from mitigation measures in the energy sector within the framework of the Peruvian government’s INDCs. The co-benefits analysed are associated with a reduction of air pollutants and an improvement in health conditions.
In this paper the authors reflect on the challenges encountered by the MAPS country teams and the value of the assessments conducted. On the basis of these reflections, the beginnings of a framework for future work is presented, which is intended to serve as a starting point for practitioners undertaking such assessments in the future. […]
Complex dynamic systems thinking and domestic climate mitigation policy in developing countries: Part 2 – Moving towards an alternative framing
Following an initial Part 1 that explores complex dynamic systems thinking as a theoretical framework to advance climate mitigation policy in developing countries, this Part 2 expands on what a complexity perspective might practically mean for the climate and development policy work. It focuses on principles, priorities and approaches as well as tools. The exploratory […]
Complex dynamic systems thinking and domestic climate mitigation policy in developing countries: Part 1 – Theoretical background
This paper considers whether complex dynamic systems thinking may be able to assist the climate mitigation policy community of practice working in development contexts in making progressing on tackling climate mitigation in developing countries. It builds on the findings from previous work under MAPS reflecting on how a climate mitigation policy community of practice working […]
Novel shapes of South-South collaboration: emerging knowledge networks on co-benefits of climate and development policies
This research adds to the literature in applying well-established concepts of networked knowledge production from the corporate management and innovation literature to one of the world’s most pressing public policy problems: integrating climate change and development. This research focuses on co-benefits knowledge creation, not adoption or transfer.
Find here the approaches that were used in the different MAPS country processes for assessing co-impacts of GHG mitigation, as well as those used in a linked project in India by CPR and some of the associated key learnings. The paper also include a brief overview of the emerging literature on co-impacts thinking and quantification, […]
This was different: The MAPS Programme and southern climate mitigation practices as ‘southern theory’
The paper asks whether the MAPS Programme can be considered a case of southern planning theorising at work and if it can, then what makes it so. In order to do this, it describes first the key intentions and methodological traits of the Programme that were identified by participants as remarkable, unusual or valuable in […]
Building Institutional Capacities for Climate Change Policy Formulation in Developing Countries: The Case of MAPS Chile
This study analyses the MAPS-Chile project from a processes perspective which emphasises decisions, strategic and methodological actions that articulate the relation and interaction between the various institutions and stakeholders involved. It builds on existing literature and develops a framework for the analysis from the perspective of sociology of science and technology. This paper is part […]
This paper documents the analytical results of the four MAPS processes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. It focuses on the information built around emissions reference cases, emission reduction opportunities, potentials and costs and on the socioeconomic impacts of the mitigation actions and scenarios. A general comparative analysis of the results is presented where possible, […]
The paper seeks to provide insights and recommendations on policy-development for practitioners in the field of climate mitigation by deepening our understanding on how implementation works. This paper is based on five case studies on South African implementation related to mitigation, a case study on policy development in Colombia and a reflective study on the LTMS.
Implementation Case Study- Energy and thermal efficiency in government-subsidised housing in South Africa
This research aims to isolate the factors that lead to implementation (or lack thereof) of interventions that may have an impact on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in developing countries. This case study is part of a series looking to collectively consider research on GHG mitigation action implementation by applying existing theoretical frameworks to examples […]
This paper explores the processes inside the City of Cape Town involved in failed implementation of the City-billing scheme and the eventual implementation of the Endorsement scheme, in order to illustrate and explore the challenges of implementation components of mitigation policy within the context of a large metropolitan local government in South Africa.
Implementation of the municipal energy efficiency and demand side management programme in South Africa
This research explores the drivers and experiences of implementation with respect to carbon mitigation policies and programmes. The research focuses on the case of the Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management (EEDSM) programme which targets the reduction of electricity consumption in municipalities, which are major consumers of electricity in South Africa.
The Institutionalisation of Climate Policy in India, Designing a Development-Focused, Co-Benefits Based Approach, working paper, seeks to analyse the evolution of India’s climate institutions
This paper reflects on who the climate mitigation community of practice are and how they do what they do, particularly when it comes to working in developing countries. It investigates the concept of development itself, exploring if considering ‘development’ as a stand-alone issue raises questions different to those climate mitigation practitioners usually focus on.
The research aims to uncover key drivers and barriers that have contributed to or hindered the implementation of interventions with mitigation benefit in developing countries. . This case study examines the implementation of South Africa’s energy programme- the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).
This case study of the implementation of the MyCiTi Bus Rapid Transit system is one of a series of studies which seek to identify key drivers and barriers that have contributed to or hindered the implementation in developing countries of past or current interventions which have climate mitigation benefits. The objective of this research is […]
What was the contribution of the Long Term Mitigation Scenario process to South African climate mitigation policy?
The LTMS is acknowledged as being the “foundation” of South African climate mitigation policy, both domestically and internationally. However the extent to which climate mitigation implementation has become a reality in the country is questionable. The LTMS also provided the inspiration for the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Programme which facilitated similar processes being […]
This paper first identifies the instruments that will likely form part of the Paris package, and then explores the characteristic features of each of these instruments with a particular focus on their legal status and significance. In doing so, it will address the issue of ‘legal form’ of the core 2015 agreement.
What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contribution’ (INDC))? Since energy accounts for 77% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, this question can only be answered as one part of a larger discussion about India’s energy future. This study conducts a comparative review of seven recent […]
Linking Sectoral Models: Agroforestry Systems as CER providers: An analysis for the Peruvian amazon region
This paper examines agroforestry systems as certified emissions reductions for the Peruvian Amazon region. It describes the findings of a modeling-based research, which compares the economic value of timber felling practices in agroforestry plots in Peru, with the potential financial benefits of using global carbon trading mechanisms
The aim of this study was to build capacity in the development of tools for the analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of introducing measures to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon tax and cap and trade scheme. The study is based on the integration of bottom-up with top-down models. The associated brief shows […]
This paper aims to analyse the economy-wide implications of a carbon tax applied on the Chilean electricity generation sector as it will act as an economic shock to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth path. In order to get an answer to this, both energy sectoral model and dynamic stochastic generally equilibrium (DSGE) model […]
Some developing countries are implementing measures to deviate its emissions patterns. This paper uses a methodological approach to assess the socio-economic implications of some of these potential measures, to evaluate the Colombian case. The main finding is that a carbon tax does not affect significantly the macroeconomic indicators and yet reached important abatements, especially if […]
Socio-economic implications of mitigation in the power sector including carbon taxes in South Africa
This research paper investigates the socio-economic implications of mitigation in the power sector including carbon taxes in South Africa. The structure of this paper is as follows. The first section provides a discussion of recent developments within South Africa aimed at increasing the contribution of renewable energy. The second section gives a brief description of […]
This working paper intends to support in-country teams involved in building their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by exploring the different possible forms these contributions could take.
Political-economy implications: Transferring the treatment of Hydroflourocarbons from the UNFCCC to the Montreal Protocol
There are many unanswered questions regarding the Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) phase-down under the Montreal Protocol beyond its legal implications. These must be discussed and debated before Montreal Protocol can be amended to control the production and consumption of HFCs. This paper discusses some of the political-economy related implications of the regulation of HFCs.
Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: Linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa
This paper reports on modelling approaches that provide information to answer policy-relevant questions in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. The analysis informs different country contexts; energy-related green house gas (GHG) emissions currently dominate in Chile and South Africa, while those due to agriculture, forestry and land-use (AFOLU) are historically more important in Brazil, […]
This paper aims to provide insights into the lessons learnt from the practical experiences in the European Union (EU),with sharing of climate change commitments relevant for developing countries in light of the international post 2020 negotiations.
This paper is an analysis of mitigation assessments under the EU Emissions Trading System (2005-2012) and intra-EU equity or solidarity under the EU 2020 climate policy framework
This paper examines whether the Montreal Protocol, with its legal mandate to protect the ozone layer from depletion, should regulate hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) despite them not being ozone-depleting substances.
This paper looks at the gaps between alleviating poverty and climate mitigation. It talks about why, even under conditions of extreme poverty, climate mitigation cannot be ignored. It also looks at why climate adaptation has tended to overshadow climate mitigation in anti-poverty strategies and shows the lack of a direct link between poverty thinking and mitigation action.
This paper identifies legal, architectural and technical options for operationalising the equity reference framework (ERF).
This paper, by Sonja Klinsky, addresses the equity debates within climate policy, and draws attention to underlying social-psychological patterns that could shape ideas about what feels fair in various situations.
This paper is part of a series that aims to support stakeholders and research groups in the selection of long-range energy systems modelling platforms, to inform decision making for public policy options compatible with national development goals. This paper builds on the MAPS Chile experience.
Modelling the Socio-Economic Implications of Mitigation Actions: A Case Study Of Industrial Energy Efficiency In South Africa
It is known that there is considerable potential for emissions reduction through the implementation of energy efficiency policies. This paper seeks to address the still limited understanding of the impacts of these policies on economic growth, employment and welfare by assessing the socio-economic implications of increased energy efficiency in South Africa.
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) is a collaboration amongst developing countries to establish the evidence base for long-term transition to robust economies that are both carbon efficient and climate resilient. MAPS country programmes have dedicated research teams focusing specifically on the agriculture sector in order to strengthen data and refine methodological approaches to identify […]
This empirical study assesses the relationship between the characteristics of developing countries and the amount of official climate mitigation finance inflow. A two-part model and robustness checks were used to analyse 1998–2010 Rio Marker data on 180 developing countries. The results show that developing countries with higher CO2 intensity, larger carbon sinks, lower per capita gross […]
This paper establishes broad framework for the analysis of energy security, and presents an analysis of South Africa’s energy security situation, arguing that the country is facing an energy security crisis.
Mitigation Potential in the Agriculture Sector: The case of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa
This paper examines the socio-economic importance of the agriculture sector in six emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa) and compares their GHG emissions profiles.
This study seeks to understand how mitigation actions are approached and conceptualised in Argentina. It describes how the country defines and identifies mitigation actions. It also maps the general policy context, the institutions that have been focusing on mitigation actions to date, and the initiatives underway in the country to further structure approaches to mitigation […]
Modelling is vital for developing low carbon development plans and strategies that are consistent with national circumstances. Models identify the mitigation policy instruments and measures needed ‘to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible costs. Numerous models and modelling approaches available to answer different policy questions; each with their own set of advantages and limitations. Often, a […]
Guidelines for the selection of Long-Range Energy Systems Modelling Platforms to support MAPS processes
Setting achievable GHG mitigation targets requires the systematic analysis of potential mitigation actions to quantify the implication of each action, in terms of its benefits and costs. This is done with the help of models. There are a multitude of modelling platforms and approaches available, each with its strengths and weaknesses, and they can be […]
Mitigation actions are currently a source of both academic and ‘on-the-ground’ interest, especially as they arise within the UNFCCC context as Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). Committing to action at the international level remains, however, an empty contribution to global mitigation efforts unless it is translated into domestic public policy interventions.
Climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa were surveyed for their understanding of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission […]
In light of the ongoing international discussions about the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action concept, this study takes instead a more ‘bottom-up’ approach through a comparative analysis of five studies of mitigation actions in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru and South Africa. The analysis shows that mitigation actions are driven by both developmental and climate objectives. The […]
This paper explains different approaches to using Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves as a mitigation decision tool. It also demonstrates appropriate interpretation of MAC curves through illustrated examples
India faces many development challenges. It has to lift 340 million people out of poverty, reduce the rural- urban disparities, address energy poverty and solve many other development issues. But India also needs to contribute in solving the climate change problem and take mitigation actions.
Equitable access to sustainable development: relevance to negotiations and actions on climate change
The effectiveness and stability of any agreement, especially as a basis for cooperation, largely depends on the perception of its fairness by the agreeing parties. It is for this reason that equity has received a lot of attention in the two decades of negotiations under the UNFCCC. This paper reflects on the basis and relevance […]
Reducing inequality and poverty while mitigating climate change: key challenges for research and practice in middle-income countries in Africa and Latin America
What is the relationship between emissions, inequality and poverty? Growing wealth supposedly correlates with increasing emissions. Rich countries are historically high in per capita emissions, whereas poor countries have low per capita emissions. African and Latin American non-Annex I countries rank high in the statistics of emissions intensity. Where are highly unequal middle-income countries in […]
Poverty and climate change mitigation are two concepts, which trouble policy makers and climate policy analysts, because they perceive them as conflicting public policy objectives. Poverty remains a pressing problem in many middle-income countries, where efforts for mitigating climate change become more urgent. Poverty alleviation often disappears as an explicit priority in the wider concepts […]
Low Carbon Development and Poverty: exploring poverty alleviating mitigation action in developing countries
This paper examines current literature on the linkages between low-carbon development, mitigation and poverty in middle-income countries. Climate change and poverty generally fall into the adaptation category in research literature and policymaking. Acknowledging current findings of poverty research, this separation between mitigation and adaptation does not hold anymore. The majority of the poor now live […]
Climate and trade issues lie at the intersection of two of the world’s most contested, delayed and important multilateral negotiations: climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and international trade as regulated by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper considers two aspects of overlapping concern to the two […]
This study seeks to understand how mitigation actions (MAs) are approached and conceptualized in Brazil. It describes how the country defines and identifies MAs. It also maps the general policy context, the institutions that have been focusing on MAs to date, and the initiatives underway in the country to further structure approaches to MAs.
The paper seeks to understand how mitigation actions have been conceptualized and could be approached in Colombia. It is divided in two parts. The first part presents the contextual framework in which the NAMAs will be undertaken. The second part contains the bases used to identify NAMA proposals for Colombia.
The country study aims to deepen understanding of mitigation activity in Chile, particularly with regard to how the country approaches, describes and defines mitigation actions.
The country study aims to deepen our understanding of mitigation activity in South Africa, particularly with regard to how the country approaches, describes and defines mitigation actions. It considers three main areas of enquiry from a bottom-up methodological perspective: first, what is a South African Mitigation Action (SAMA)? Second, what are the barriers and challenges […]
The main purpose of this study is to understand and explore the concept of mitigation actions in Peru, how they are defined and identified, and issues related to their development. The study is divided in two parts: the first analyzes the country specific approach to mitigation actions, and the second analyzes a particular example of […]